Here are my thoughts on what we'll see as the men and ice dancing short programs get underway at the US National Figure Skating Championships in San Jose this weekend.

Ice Dancing

The Contenders

Davis and White: The reigning world champions will win this. They are far enough ahead of the other teams to survive a few major errors. They have the best programs of the season, in my opinion. I know some have criticized their short dance but I still think it's the best one being done, particularly among the American teams. And their Die Fledermaus free dance is sheer joy from beginning to end. I can't imagine they'll leave with anything other than gold.

The Dark Horses

Shibutani and Shibutani: Maia and Alex Shibutani have had a bit of an up or down season, trying to figure out where they fit in the international skating season after their surprise bronze medal at last year's world championships. They have the chops to be great but they don't quite have the presence that some of the more mature teams have. I would be surprised if they don't easily win the silver medal here, though.

Chock and Bates: Chock and Bates had a better season on the Grand Prix than his former partner did (and more competitions), so I think they will likely be the front-runners for the bronze medal here. There's not too much I can say about them. I don't necessarily see them making waves internationally anytime soon but I do think they were a good fit for each other. I think Bates has improved...I used to never even watch him when he would skate with Emily Samuelson and now I am more drawn to him, so his presence is greater, at least.

Others to Watch: Kriengkairut and Giulietti-Schmitt, Samuelson and Gilles, Hubbell and Donohue.

Prediction

1) Davis and White

2) Shibutani and Shibutani

3) Chock and Bates

Men

The Contenders

Jeremy Abbott: Ostensibly, this should be an easy competition for Jeremy Abbott to win. But then, so should have been 2011's National Championship, where he came in fourth. So who knows. He's got some great programs this year. His Sing Sing Sing short program should win over the crowd and the Exogenesis free skate is a work of art. I hope he can be in the zone and put down one of his amazing nationals performances.

Richard Dornbush: Dornbush now has a quad, which is a great addition to the repertoire. I also think he's grown artistically this season, although maybe his Sherlock Holmes program from last season was better received, so who knows. He didn't particularly sweep the international judges off their feet on the Grand Prix but don't be surprised if clean performances get him back on the podium and even in the top spot. The US judges really like this guy. He hasn't been so clean this season, though, and that's an issue.

The Dark Horses

Jason Brown: Jason Brown went from killing it in his free skate at nationals last season to killing it on the Junior Grand Prix this year. He is a great skater to watch and I can't wait to see him mature. He could score some points if he puts down quality programs here and I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the top six, improving on last season's ninth place finish. Unfortunately for him, he does not yet have a consistent triple axel, and I can't imagine him truly medaling without one. Not sure what it would say about the state of men's skating in the US if he could. Still, I thought he deserved a mention.

Ross Miner: Miner is a gorgeous skater and he has a wonderful free skate to The Untouchables. He was able to win a bronze medal at NHK Trophy which is a testament to how well he can do when he skates clean. I don't necessarily see him swooping in and winning, but another medal is not out of the realm of possibility.

Armin Mahbanoozadeh: Mahbanoozadeh is a gorgeous skater who I always love to watch. But it's time for him to step it up competitively and get on that podium before he gets passed by for good. He did not have a good Grand Prix showing this season. I will be impressed if he throws a quad toe loop, though.

Brandon Mroz: Mroz made headlines by becoming the first skater to cleanly land the quadruple lutz in competition. I hope we see another one here. Unfortunately for Mroz, he has not been able to land much else this season, and it's been a bit of a competitive disaster.

Adam Rippon: Adam Rippon is another of the most beautiful skaters on the ice. He justmissed the podium at both of his Grand Prix events this season. If he is clean, he could easily medal. I am not sure if he is attempting the quad lutz at this event. He is another one who really needs to break through and medal asap.

Others to Watch: Joshua Farris, Keegan Messing, Douglas Razzano, and who knows who will come through again this year as the upstart?

Prediction

1) Jeremy Abbott

2) Ross Miner

3) Adam Rippon

Here are the full standings after last night's short programs:

Pairs

Ladies

The ladies short program just finished at the US National figure skating championships. Here were my quick thoughts of the girls I saw.

Group 1

Yasmin Siraj: missed. falls on triple lutz 51.96

Mirai Nagasu raring to go: had what looked like attack but then she had a wacky landing on her triple loop. The combo and the double axel were fine, though. She doesn't have the best speed in the rest of the program and I don't love this program. Interesting spins. She should still score well despite the troubles on the loop landing. 59.02

Haley Dunne: Triple toe/triple toe, but commentator thinks may be underrotated. Don't love this footwork. Gotta respect the emotion and solid skating. Nice layback. Great senior debut and way to try the triple/triple. 51.41. Pretty low compared with Siraj.

Morgan Bell: Awesome spread eagle into double axel right off the top - forward on double axel but that impressed me. Messed up the combo end, Fall on the triple lutz, kind of a terrible-looking takeoff. Little too much "upper body movement" for me at the beginning of the footwork but I like the close. 38.55

Group 2

Alissa Czisny: This was a lovely, beautiful, gorgeous skate. And the first two jumping passes were perfect. And then she popped the axel, maybe caught an edge or something. But wow, she is just miles ahead of everyone else in presentation and I'mgoing to look at the pop as a fluke. Darn! Things were going so well up til then. 63.14

McKinzie Daniels: missed. 49.96

Nina Jiang: Wow, she is only 14 but definitely is mature for her years. This is an impressive debut. Elegant dress, she landed all of her jumps. 53.66 puts her in third place...wow,nice.

Joelle Forte: HOlds onto triple lutz landing and does complete the combo. Slow footwork but stays on one foot for awhile. Her other jumps are fine. Not an amazingly choreographed program but she looks lovely out there. Nice smile. 48.13 for seventh place. Not fab.

Angela Wang: missed. 49.98

Group 3

Aimee Buchanan (last minute replacement for Samantha Cesario - sad! Could not seem to land any of her jumps. She was a very last minute replacement so I am sure that is really jarring. But good for her for taking the challenge. 37.77. Tenth place.

Agnes Zawadzki: Love the eye contact with the audience. Beautiful triple toe/triple toe! Gorgeous triple lutz! Wow! Great double axel, nice spins. This is just the best we've seen her all season. What a wonderful short program. 66.24. Well-deserved with that program. How great!

Vanessa Lam: She does a spread eagle into double axel...then triple lutz/double loop combo. It looked a little odd but it was clean I think. Triple flip. Pretty good speed in this program. 54.47

Caroline Zhang: Great triple loop/triple loop (COME AGAIN???). Double axel. Dare I say she looks lovely out there? She is still almost at a standstill during footwork but she powers through. Her spins are solid. Ack I hope that second triple loop is not underrotated. She needs points for trying something actually challenging. I can't believe what I just saw, I mean, great job for Caroline Zhang. What improvement! This is a very interesting night! 60.18. She could not quite compete with Czisny but she is in third place.

Ashley Wagner: She is following up after some very impressive skates. Great triple flip/double two combo, nice entry into triple loop and solid double axel. She's got a great presence out there tonight. Nice execution of the footwork and spread eagle. Another awesome job! I am LOVING this competition. Lots of great skating going on. 63.06 for third place. I would have maybe had her ahead of Czisny tonight, but I guess at least they are close.

Wow...in a night of great comebacks...could Rachael Flatt be next? We shall see....

Group Four

Rachael Flatt has friends in the stands. That is nice. Good triple lutz/double toe, good triple flip. Seemed very tired and singled the axel. I hate this footwork sequence with every fiber of my being. Program started out great, fizzled a bit. 52.71, eighth place. not good.

Sophia Adams: Jumps all landed, nice spins. Pleasant enough program. Nice debut for Adams. 51.40.

Kiri Baga: Nice triple lutz. Triple toe/double toe. She is tiny! Holds onto the double axel. Very odd spin. Or some might say interesting. Wow. Another odd position. Like a spider has broken its leg in that sit spin. That is what it looks like to me. This footwork is ok but she does not look particularly refined. Still, this was a nice program with good energy at parts. Well done. 50.15 for twelfth place.

Christina Gao: Triple flip (not great landing)/double toe. Triple loop close to the boards. She is still very slouchy. She looks much better than she did earlier in the season. It wasn't amazing but it was a good effort. 54.83, in sixth place for now. Not bad for her.

Leah Keiser: Falls on back end of triple lutz/triple toe combo. Good triple flip. Finishes up nicely. 52.44 into tenth place.

So your top six for the ladies final:

1) Agnes Zawadski 66.24

2) Alissa Czisny 63.14

3) Ashley Wagner 63.06

4) Caroline Zhang 60.18

5) Mirai Nagasu 59.02

6) Christina Gao 54.83

The 2012 Prudential US Figure Skating Championships are underway for the senior skaters and the pairs short program was just completed. There is a bit of a surprise at the top with Mary Beth Marley and Rockne Brubaker in first by about four points with a 65.80. Evora and Ladwig are behind with a 61.27 with Denney and Coughlin in third place with a 60.88. Just behind in fourth place are Castelli and Shnapir with 60.56. I am looking for the full listing and I'll post it when I find.

Anyone who is a skating fan who has seen "Dance Moms" on Lifetime has surely wondered what would happen if someone made a reality show about skating parents. Well, you are going to get the chance to see just that.

Lifetime is developing "Ice Moms," according to The Hollywood Reporter. It will focus on coaches Laurie Vigilante and Adam Schmidt, who are apparently coaches in Dearborn, Michigan. I have never heard of them, so I already question the series, but of course, if you have actually heard of the coaches, they would hopefully be classy enough not to participate in this type of series. The show will focus on how the coaches tick off the parents of the skaters, essentially. Does anyone know if any of Vigilante or Schmidt's students have gone on to impressive skating careers?

Either way, it should bring the drama. There's nothing like skating coaches and parents for a little bit of craziness.

What do you guys think - will this be good for the sport because it's drawing attention to it or bad for the sport because it is sure to present some negative portrayals of coaches and parents? Or does it not matter?

Evgeny Plushenko needs another knee surgery soon and he will miss March's World Figure Skating Championships. So the already-hyped matchup between Plushenko and reigning world champion Patrick Chan will not take place this season. Plushenko is finishing up the competition at the European Championships, currently taking place in Sheffield, UK.

Though the men's short program is going on as I write this, here are some earlier results.

Continue reading this post »

The national figure skating championships start tonight in San Jose, California. These performances will almost surely decide the teams for the Four Continents Championships and the World Championships. Here's a look at what I expect from some of the top competitors.

Pairs

The Contenders

Denney and Coughlin: They rode a USFSA hype machine into the season but didn't come out with any Grand Prix medals. They have a nice triple twist, but a nice triple twist does not an elite team make. They actually make a nice pair but they just don't have the chops to compete on the international stage. Nationally, though, is a different story. They have been placed on the pedestal as the top US pair all season and that should end with a national championship for them in San Jose. But if they make too many errors, you can be sure a clean Evora and Ladwig will be able to contend for the title.

Evora and Ladwig: If this were a sports movie, Evora and Ladwig would have a bulletin board pinned full of all the hype-tastic Icenetwork articles that were done this season on Denney and Coughlin. And then Evora and Ladwig would come out with passion and fight and steal the attention away and win the whole thing. But, this is not a sports movie. And Evora and Ladwig are probably too mild-mannered to come out swinging. I am pretty sure this competition will come down to the cleaner team, but it would be nice to see some spark mixed in.

The Dark Horses

Marley and Brubaker: These two made a splash at their first nationals together last season by coming in fourth place. They haven't quite progressed as much this season as I would have liked to have seen but it's still only their second year working together and she's still quite young (and looks it). I would not be surprised to see them on the podium.

Others to watch: Castelli and Shnapir, Vise and Baldwin.

Prediction

1) Denney and Coughlin

2) Evora and Ladwig

3) Marley and Brubaker

Ladies

The Contenders

Alissa Czisny: Czisny is the reigning national champion after last season's amazing competitive resurgence. She won Skate America and came in third at Trophee Eric Bompard. But the last we saw her, she was injured and not looking good at the Grand Prix Final. She is now recovered and is trying to win her third national championship, which is no small feat. Examiner reports that Czisny will not try the triple lutz/triple toe, but instead will do a double axel/triple toe. The double axel/triple toe is impressive, but I really would love to see Czisny go for that triple/triple. Czisny has also reportedly removed problem jump triple salchow from her repertoire. I hope these changes pay off. For me, they seem a bit of a defensive strategy, which indicates maybe something shaky going on mentally, if it's a big enough deal to forgo the salchow altogether. At the same time, you don't medal for sticking to your guns, you medal for racking up points. And this is Czisny's strategy. She has two absolutely gorgeous programs this season; they may be my very favorites of the year for the ladies. She should be ahead of everyone on program components, with only Mirai Nagasu having a hope of getting close there. But she needs to be fairly clean so she can repeat as national champion. Lucky for her, the other ladies are not known for their consistency.

Mirai Nagasu: Nagasu has been up and down this season, as she tends to be. She came in second at Cup of China but only fifth at Skate Canada. On a good day, she could easily take this competition. She can rack up the components marks on her great spins and presentation. But she can be a sloppy jumper and she can often lose focus. I don't think she'll let us see a repeat of last year, when she found herself off the world team. Honestly, I have no idea what to expect from her, but I think she wants to get on everybody's radar again. She won this event in 2008; four years later and four years more mature and experienced - could it be her time again?

Ashley Wagner: Wagner has not been so lucky the last couple of years when it comes to the U.S. National championships. This season, she won the bronze at Skate Canada but finished just off the podium at NHK Trophy. She has a more mature look this season and I really like her free skate. She just has to keep away from the underrotations and the two-footed landings that tend to plague her. I think she'll be good for a medal but it will take mistakes from others and a lights-out performance from her (not unheard of) to bring home the gold.

The Dark Horses

Rachael Flatt: How long has it been since Rachael Flatt has not been one of the top contenders at Nationals? I couldn't in good conscience classify her as one, since she has been out of shape and off the podiums all season. And to be honest, she hasn't seem to be that worried about it. I have no idea if she'll show up focused and refined, but it would take two skates of a lifetime for her to win. It's been downhill for Flatt since she skated injured at worlds last season and was met by a US Figure Skating fine.

Agnes Zawadzki: Zawadzki was a disappointment this season. She attempted a more mature look and could not pull it off, particularly not without her impressive triple jumps. She switched coaches for the season and she hasn't looked comfortable at all. If she cleans her act up, she has a chance at a medal given her jumping capabilties. But that's a big if.

Christina Gao: Gao tried to grow up a bit on the Grand Prix this season but she hasn't quite got a hold on the refined style yet, similar to Zawadzki. She had trouble with her jumps as well, likely due to a summer hip injury that took up a lot of her training time, so her Grand Prix effort was a disappointment. I'll be surprised if she can leap over the ladies above who will have much stronger program components, but she has impressed at nationals before so don't totally count her out.

Others to watch: Let's not forget Caroline Zhang, Vanessa Lam (who came in fifth at the Junior Grand Prix Final), Samantha Cesario (withdrawal) (two bronzes on the Junior Grand Prix circuit). Cesario is from Oceanside, New York, apparently, which is where my parents live, so I have to pull a bit for the Long Island girl.

Prediction

1) Alissa Czisny

2) Mirai Nagasu

3) Ashley Wagner

The senior events at the U.S. National Figure Skating Championships begin tomorrow in San Jose, California.

Here is a list of the actual times of the events and then below you can find the broadcast schedule.

All times are Eastern:

Thurday, January 26:

7 pm: Pairs short program

10:30 pm: Ladies short program

Friday, January 27:

5:30 pm: Short dance

10:30 pm: Senior men's short program

Saturday, January 28:

3:00 pm: Free dance (group 1)

4:00 pm: Free dance (groups 2-3)

7 pm: Ladies free skate (groups 1-2)

9 pm: Ladies free skate (groups 3-4)

11:30 pm: Pairs free skate (groups 1-2)

Sunday, January 29:

12:30 pm: Men's free skate (groups 1-2)

2:30 pm: Pairs free skate (group 3)

3:00 pm: Pairs free skate (group 4)

4:00 pm: Men's free skate (groups 3-4)

Broadcast Schedule:

Saturday, January 28:

NBC: 4-6 pm: Free dance (final two groups)

NBC: 9-11 pm: Ladies free skate (final two groups)

Sunday, January 29:

NBC: 3-6 pm: Pairs free skate (final group) and Men's free skate (final two groups)

Saturday, February 4

NBC: 2-4 pm: Exhibition Gala